【作 者】
Youtang Zhang（Tutor of Doctorate Candidate），Xiaoli
【作者单位】
（School of management，Wuhan University of Technology，Wuhan，P.R.China，430070）
【摘 要】
Abstract: With downward pressure of economy facing, monitoring boom index of employment continue to decline. This paper will research on how to cope with urban employment problem using fiscal and financial polices, through building system of boom of urban employment, and identifying risk signal of Chinese urban employment.
Keywords: Urban Employment； Monitoring Boom； Early-Warning of Unemployment； Fiscal and Financial PolicesOn eighth September, 2015, Fiscal Policy Measures Supporting Steady Growth published by Ministry of Finance stated that Chinese overall employment situation remains stable, and in the first half of the year surveyed unemployment rate investigated from 31 metropolises basically stabilize about 5.1% with fluctuation range not in excess of 0.2%; at the end of the second quarter, nationwide registered urban unemployment rate was 4.04% which kept at a low level; at the end of June, national cities and towns created new employed population of 7.18 million, which accomplished 71.8% work of the whole year task.
From the standpoint of urban employment boom monitoring, this paper intends to research the selection of fiscal policy on the back ground of new formal appearing in Chinese employment situation so as to play a role in pre-controlling the unurban employment.
1 Design the Monitoring Boom Indicator System of Urban Employment
It is a key part to improve the unemployment security system that constructing monitoring boom indicator system of urban employment and comprehensively monitoring condition of urban employment as well as urban unemployment security. Chinese monitoring boom of urban employment, Chinese monitoring boom of national economy, Chinese monitoring boom of labor employment and Chinese monitoring boom of urban employment security are in a extremely close relation with each other. As shown in Figure 1.
1.1 Monitoring Boom Indicators of National Economy
Labor economic theories believe that economic growth can stimulate the development of employment. This is because with the economy grows there are more labor needed, which leads to a decrease of unemployment rate, and then the pressure of expenditure of unemployment security funds also reduces. This phenomenon is called employment elasticity in labor economic theories, that is to say the need of unemployment security is influenced by the employment elasticity. Economic growth can improve the per capital disposable income of urban residents, and with enterprises improving their profits, governmental tax revenue will be stimulated. Therefore, when economic growth is in a good state, national fiscal revenue is growing stably. Governmental finical fund is the major component of social security investment, and the stabilization of the economic growth decides the adequacy of unemployment security funds. Therefore, economic development is a key indicator that decides the condition of urban unemployment and unemployment security. We sect the indicators of growth rate of GDP, urban employment elasticity of GDP, urban residents consumer price index, capital disposable income of per urban residents, and fixed asset investment rate to reflect the consequence of monitoring of Chinese national economy boom.
1.2 Monitoring Boom Indicators of Labor Employment
Unemployment rate efficiently reflects the unemployment situation of one national macro-economy and influences the need of unemployment security. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics have carried on sample survey about the situation of urban labor to calculate the urban investigating unemployment rate since 1996. Compared with urban registered unemployment rate, urban investigating unemployment rate can virtually reflect the situation of Chinese unemployed labor. Among the urban unemployed labor, factors that need to be paid attention to are the proportion of long-term unemployed labor and the growth rate of unemployed labor which reflects the dynamic change of urban unemployment situation. Therefore, we select urban registered unemployment rate, urban investigating unemployment rate, proportion of urban long-term unemployed persons, growth rate of urban unemployed, average period of urban unemployment, support living coefficient of urban families, urban unemployment gender ratio and the proportion of special groups with difficulties in hunting jobs to reflect situation of urban labor employment boom.
1.3 Monitoring Boom Indicators of Urban Employment Security
The proportion that social security expenditure in GDP is used to measure a country"s economic ability and also measure the improving level of social security of civil residents. The proportion urban unemployment security expenditure occupies in social security expenditure reflects the intensity of input of unemployment security funds in social security expenditure. The coverage rate of urban unemployment security and urban unemployment insurance expense per capital reflect the scope and degree of how much unemployment security benefits urban unemployed people. Therefore, we select social security occupies in GDP, proportion social security expense occupies in fiscal expenditure, proportion urban unemployment security expenditure occupies in ocial security expenditure, coverage rate of urban unemployed security, urban unemployment insurance expense per capital, accumulated surpluses per capital of unemployment insurance, average time span of unemployed labor"s receiving unemployment insurance, proportion that unemployed people receiving unemployment insurance occupies in whole population and dependency coefficient of urban unemployment security to reflect the situation of urban employment security boom.
Monitoring boom indicator system of urban employment is selected from the national level macro indicators, covering all the major cities across the country unemployment dynamic monitoring data, focusing primarily on the overall employment situation in the non-agricultural economy secondary and tertiary industries. The specific indicators design as shown in Table 1.
2 Monitoring Boom Indicator of Urban Employment Model
2.1 Build on Monitoring Boom Index of Employment Model
Based on Principal Component Analysis eliminate secondary indicator, we can calculate monitoring boom index of national economy, monitoring boom index of Labor employment, and monitoring boom index of urban employment security, according to the relationship between indicators. Therefore, monitoring boom index of urban employment can be calculated as follow:
Monitoring Boom Index of Urban Employment（CI）= W1×Monitoring Boom Index of National Economy(C1)+W2×Monitoring Boom Index of Labor Employment(C2)+ W3× Monitoring Boom Index of Urban Employment Security (C3)
Among them: W1 is the weight of monitoring boom index of national economy; W2 is the weight of monitoring boom index of labor employment; W3 is the weight of monitoring boom index of urban employment security.
2.2 Selection and Calculation of Monitoring Boom Indicators of Employment
We can find out the primary data from China Statistical Yearbook, China Labor Statistics Yearbook, National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Using Principal Component Analysis, we can exclude secondary indicators, and choose 9 primary indicators from above 23 indicators, as shown in Table 2.dent Consumer Price Index, Urban Survey Unemployment Rate, Growth Rate of Urban Unemployed and Urban Unemployment Insurance Expense per Capital can be directly found form China Statistical Yearbook, China Labor Statistical Yearbook, National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security; Urban Employment Elasticity of GDP, Support Living Coefficient of Urban Families, Social Security Occupies in GDP, Proportion Urban Unemployment Security Expenditure Occupies in Social Security Expenditure can be calculated based on the source of the primary datum.Due to the complexity of the indicators, and the criteria vary, we must firstly treat the indicators in the same direction, then the risk of urban employment can be got. Secondly, renumber the urban employment indexes, namely the original X11, X12, X13, X22, X24, X26, X31, X33, X35, respectively B11, B12, B13, B22, B24, B26, B31, B33, B35. And the way for treating the indicators in the same direction calculated as follows:For the indicators larger the warning is smaller, Growth Rate of GDP, Urban Resident Consumer Price Index, Social Security Occupies in GDP, Proportion Urban Unemployment Security Expenditure Occupies in Social Security Expenditure and Urban Unemployment Insurance Expense per Capital. The method of treating the indicators in the same direction as follows:
Individual Index=( Current Value-Maximum)/(Minimum- Maximum)
For the indicators smaller when the warning smaller, Urban Employment Elasticity of GDP, Urban Survey Unemployment Rate, Growth Rate of Urban Unemployed and Support Living Coefficient of Urban Families. The method of treating the indicators in the same direction as follows:
Individual Index=(Current Value- Minimum)/(Maximum - Minimum)
After calculating, we can get different boom indicators of urban employment corresponding to different years of boom index of urban employment, as shown in table 3.
2.3 Comprehensive Index of Monitoring Boom of Urban Employment
Comprehensive index of monitoring boom of urban employment must be overall information of monitoring boom index of national economy, monitoring boom index of labor employment and monitoring boom index of urban employment security. We choose Analytic Hierarchy Process to empower each individual index, and give different weights based on the importance of each individual index, as shown in table 4.
Monitoring Boom Index of National Economy (C1)=20%×B11+40%×B12+40%×B13
Monitoring Boom Index of Labor Employment(C2)=42.86%×B22+42.86%×B24+14.28%×B26
Monitoring Boom Index of Urban Employment Security(C3)=25%×B31+37.5%×B33+37.5%×B35
Comprehensive Index of Monitoring Boom of Urban Employment (CI)=25%×C1+35%×C2+40%×C3
Comprehensive index of monitoring boom of urban employment can be calculated through weighted, as shown in table 5.
4 Option of Fiscal And Financial Polices Based on Monitoring Boom of Urban Employment
The government uses the option of fiscal and financial polices influence the urban employment, mainly through the transmission of market mechanism, which will affect each variable in economic society, and cause the change of labor force supply and demand also economic growth, influencing the employment level of all society. From the micro-view, the options of tax policy will lead to the change of personal income and enterprise cost, through consumer and enterprise adjusting production scale, factor intensity and so on, indirectly improving the labors demand condition, so that affecting urban employment; From the macro-view, the use of fiscal special fund can bring economic growth and society aggregate demand growth, finally affecting the wheeled effect of urban employment scales. Therefore, when monitoring boom of urban employment is moderate warning or great warning, the option of fiscal and financial polices have realistic significance for doing well in precaution and regulation unemployment jobs. As figure 3:
4.1 Option of Fiscal And Financial Polices Based on Great Warning of Urban Employment Risk
(1)Strengthen Subsidy Intensity of Finance for Social Insurance
When urban employment risk is in great warning area, enterprise usually trends to pay less social security, and takes extending probation period, or makes service labor instead of worker, or conceals, understates the quantity of permanent employee, that is to escape from the responsibility of paying social security cost for workers. These behaviors seriously infract labor’s right and social welfare. Therefore, when urban employment risk is great warning, we can properly reduce enterprise social insurance rates, strengthen subsidy intensity of finance for social insurance, and carry out affirmative action for specific groups, such as unemployed people don’t need to pay social security contribution for the moment, giving unemployed people who self-employed reducing social security contribution privilege over a period, properly soften the lowest rate of paying social security contribution for small and middle enterprise with standers; we can also expend funding sources of social security contribution, raise funds by distributing welfare lottery, annuity and other ways, for private capital participating in social security projects by the way of giving tax privilege encourage social funds invest in social security system. Omni-directional social security contribution financing reform contributes to reduce enterprises and individuals’ burden, to accurate enterprise employment and promote social security contribution paying ability.
(2)Establish Students Entrepreneurship Fund
When urban employment risk is great warning, employment difficulty of university graduates is also highlighted. In order to mitigate employment difficulty of university graduates, we can take tax privilege police carrying out "2 years exemption and 3 years reduction" for entrepreneurship college students. That is to say, university graduates can enjoy 2 years exemption from the first profit making year and half reduction for the next 3 years. For the high-technology enterprises that the college students established, allow breaking even on the basis of "2 years exemption and 3 years reduction". We must strengthen entrepreneurship policy publicity, highlight the important role of high schools in entrepreneurship training. In condion ,government should strengthen the cooperation with high schools, lead high schools to set up entrepreneurship education curriculum by fiscal policies, implement college students entrepreneurship incubation base project, and encourage college students to participate in entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurship practice.
(3)Take a Tilt Policy of Tax Preferential
The use of tax policy can coordinate the regional economic development and reduce the structural unemployment. For instance, relief the resource tax, increase the deductible VAT preferential, reduce the tax burden to the Midwest key industries which absorbed more labors. When urban employment risk is great warning in town, the requirements of priority zones planning should be combined with the layout and adjustment of regional-industrial structure, and considering the labor-intensive industries which faced development problems transfer from southeast coastal areas to the Midwest especially the middle region of China, form the comparative advantage and the industrial structure"s reasonable layout in different areas, to expand employment.
4.2 Option of Fiscal and Financial Polices Based on the Moderate Warning of Urban Employment Risk
(1)The Efficiency of Employment Funds Utilization Improving
When urban employment risk is moderate warning ，it is particularly important to ease the employment risk and to prevent the further employment risk of each area. Therefore, we should give local government more autonomy at transfer payment employment funds, local relevant employment funds, and social raising employment funds, etc. And allow local government make full use of expenditure for employment, solve the problem of expenditure for employment balance too much, increase the efficiency of funds utilization; combine unemployment insurance with vocational training, expend the using ratio of unemployment insurance benefits, to promote the employment funds" change from negative life security to the employment ability improve; set up the employment incentives mechanism of unemployment insurance benefits for the unemployment to promote the unemployed struggled to find a work. If he is receiving the unemployment benefits and employed before the benefits pay expired, he will get the pay from the account of the unemployment insurance as encouragement.
(2)Encourage the SME to Absorb the Key Group Employ
When the urban employment risk emerges, the SME become the key in enlarging employment. It can enhance technological innovation ability of the SME and relieve the employment pressure by encouraging the SME technical reconstruction and innovation, increasing the support of micro-lending, arranging special fund and loan fiscal discount for technical reconstruction for the SME which employed enough graduates. Otherwise, government should supply priority technical innovation fund for the SME according with terms, which conform the requirements of industrial upgrading and can play the advantages of the graduates’ human capital, promote the development of SME. The loan limit should ascend to 3million Yuan from 2million Yuan for the labor-intensive SME which conform the standards of recruiting graduates, and government should give a full or partial subsidy by the employment ratio of graduates, which can enhance the development of the labor-intensive SME and relieve the employment pressure of graduates.
(3)Apply the Unemployment Insurance Funds System Differently
When the urban employment risk emerges, it"s degree varies from different industries, which caused by different levels of technological progress and industry life-cycles. For instance, labor intensive industry can provide more employment opportunities but calls for more insurance fees. The truth is just the reverse in capital and technology intensive industry. So applying the unemployment insurance funds system differently-higher unemployment risk of the industry pays more insurance fees-is helpful to relieve the employment pressure by risk monitoring.
References
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Huang Ming, Geng Zhongyuan. The empirical research of the urbanization and the urban employment in China ［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012(S2).
Mingzhi Yuan. Research on Relationship between Macro Tax Burden, Economy Growth and Employment ［J］. Accounting Monthly, 2012(24).
